Conjecture Institute Inc
Public records show a registered, tax-exempt organization in good standing.
What it says it does
See Schedule O.
- Income
- $551,402
- Spending
- $397,416
- Spent on programs
- 94%
- Reserves
- 4.8 months of spending
- Largest source of income
- donations and private grants, 95%
- Employees
- 0
- Volunteers
- 4
- Highest pay
- $52,550, president
Source: Form 990 for the year ending December 31, 2025, filed with the Internal Revenue Service. Rating method 2026.2. How we rate
Financial health
Good: 85 out of 100. Higher than 58% of charities in its peer group (social science, $250k to $1m).
Reserves
20 of 35Spendable reserves would cover 4.8 months of spending.
Debt
20 of 20It owes 0% of what it owns.
Living within its means
15 of 15Income exceeded spending by 28% of income.
Income trend
15 of 15Income rose 6542% on the year before.
Spending floor
15 of 1594% of spending went to programs and raising each dollar of donations cost 0 cents.
Source: Form 990 for the year ending December 31, 2025, filed with the Internal Revenue Service. Rating method 2026.2. How we rate
Governance
Weak: 45 out of 100. Higher than 9% of charities in its peer group (social science, $250k to $1m).
Independent board
18 of 253 of 3 voting board members are independent.
Conflict of interest policy
0 of 15Reports no written conflict of interest policy.
Whistleblower policy
0 of 8Reports no written whistleblower policy.
Record keeping policy
0 of 7Reports no written policy on keeping and destroying records.
Board minutes
5 of 5Keeps minutes of board meetings.
Board sees the tax return
0 of 10Did not give the board a copy of this return before filing it.
Pay set independently
0 of 5Reports no independent review process for its chief executive's pay.
Independent check of accounts
12 of 15Its accounts were reviewed or compiled by an independent accountant, but not audited.
No reported misuse
10 of 10Reports no diversion of assets, excess benefits or loans to insiders.
Source: Form 990 for the year ending December 31, 2025, filed with the Internal Revenue Service. Rating method 2026.2. How we rate
Impact evidence
Describes programs. Its tax return describes what it does but we have found no measurable results in it.
Programs described in its return (1)
- $374,407 spent. In 2025, Conjecture Institute advanced its mission through a range of research, media, and educational activities. Conjecture Studios produced a podcast series in which Ambassador Brett Hall interviewed Advisors, Fellows, and Cofounders to explore and communicate the Institutes core ideas. The organization also supported the development of a documentary by Fellow Arjun Khemani, with the script co written by President Logan Chipkin, presenting a knowledge centered and optimistic account of human progress, with particular emphasis on the Enlightenment and the role of ideas in shaping civilization. Academic and educational initiatives were expanded through Conjecture University. During the year, the Institute recruited several academic researchers and a Senior Scientist, many of whom published original research in 2025. In support of its educational mission, the organization also created foundational materials, including a glossary of key terms and a mini book known as the Handbook, which explains the Institutes worldview, projects, and purpose. Publishing efforts continued under Conjecture Press with the release of two books for general audiences. The Institute published The Sovereign Child, co authored by Cofounder Aaron Stupple and Logan Chipkin, which contributes to the Taking Children Seriously parenting movement by emphasizing childrens intellectual and emotional agency. The organization also published Lords of the Cosmos, authored by Arjun Khemani and Logan Chipkin, which expands upon the themes explored in Khemanis documentary.
Source: Form 990 for the year ending December 31, 2025, filed with the Internal Revenue Service. Rating method 2026.2. How we rate
Legitimacy checks
Is it registered with the IRS? Passed.
Listed in the IRS master file of tax-exempt organizations as a 501(c)(3) charitable organization.
Source: Exempt Organizations Business Master File, Internal Revenue Service, file dated October 13, 2026.
Has the IRS revoked its tax-exempt status? Passed.
Not on the IRS automatic revocation list.
Source: Automatic revocation of exemption list, Internal Revenue Service, file dated November 6, 2026.
Are donations tax-deductible? Passed.
On the IRS list of organizations eligible to receive tax-deductible contributions.
Source: Publication 78 data: organizations eligible for tax-deductible contributions, Internal Revenue Service, file dated October 13, 2026.
Is it keeping up with its IRS filings? Passed.
Most recent return on file covers the year ending December 2025.
Source: Exempt Organizations Business Master File, Internal Revenue Service, file dated October 13, 2026.
How long has it been tax-exempt? Passed.
Recognized by the IRS since June 2024.
Source: Exempt Organizations Business Master File, Internal Revenue Service, file dated October 13, 2026.
Is it in good standing with state regulators? Passed.
Not on California's list of charities barred from soliciting. Other states are not yet checked.
Source: May Not Operate or Solicit for Charitable Purposes list, California Attorney General, Registry of Charities and Fundraisers, file dated November 4, 2026.
Ratings and checks are our reading of public records, using the published method. They are not a statement about anyone's honesty. If you work for this organization, you can send corrections or results, confirm you want gifts through Veridonate, or ask to be removed from giving.