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Forecasting Research Institute

EIN 92-0693558 · Claymont, DE

Public records show a registered, tax-exempt organization in good standing.

LegitimacyPassesRegistration and standingFinancial healthFair69 out of 100GovernanceStrong95 out of 100Impact evidenceDescribes programsHow well its results are evidenced

What it says it does

IMPROVE THE SCIENCE OF FORECASTING FOR THE PUBLIC GOOD.

Income
$9.3 million
Spending
$4.4 million
Spent on programs
85%
Reserves
0.5 months of spending
Largest source of income
donations and private grants, 99%
Employees
0
Volunteers
6
Highest pay
$197,443, ceo & treasurer

Source: Form 990 for the year ending December 31, 2025, filed with the Internal Revenue Service. Rating method 2026.2. How we rate

Financial health

Fair: 69 out of 100. Higher than 38% of charities in its peer group (public benefit, $1m to $10m).

  • Reserves

    4 of 35

    Spendable reserves would cover 0.5 months of spending.

  • Debt

    20 of 20

    It owes 0% of what it owns.

  • Living within its means

    15 of 15

    Income exceeded spending by 53% of income.

  • Income trend

    15 of 15

    Income rose 201% on the year before.

  • Spending floor

    15 of 15

    85% of spending went to programs and raising each dollar of donations cost 0 cents.

Source: Form 990 for the year ending December 31, 2025, filed with the Internal Revenue Service. Rating method 2026.2. How we rate

Governance

Strong: 95 out of 100. Higher than 65% of charities in its peer group (public benefit, $1m to $10m).

  • Independent board

    25 of 25

    4 of 5 voting board members are independent.

  • Conflict of interest policy

    15 of 15

    Has a written conflict of interest policy.

  • Whistleblower policy

    8 of 8

    Has a written whistleblower policy.

  • Record keeping policy

    7 of 7

    Has a written policy on keeping and destroying records.

  • Board minutes

    5 of 5

    Keeps minutes of board meetings.

  • Board sees the tax return

    10 of 10

    Gave the board a copy of this return before filing it.

  • Pay set independently

    0 of 5

    Reports no independent review process for its chief executive's pay.

  • Independent check of accounts

    15 of 15

    Its accounts were audited by an independent accountant.

  • No reported misuse

    10 of 10

    Reports no diversion of assets, excess benefits or loans to insiders.

Source: Form 990 for the year ending December 31, 2025, filed with the Internal Revenue Service. Rating method 2026.2. How we rate

Impact evidence

Describes programs. Its tax return describes what it does but we have found no measurable results in it.

Programs described in its return (1)
  1. $3.8 million spent. FRI DESIGNED AND RAN MANY SCIENTIFIC EXPERIMENTS AND EXPERT ELICITATION SURVEYS, AND PUBLISHED 8 ACADEMIC PAPERS AND TECHNICAL REPORTS ALL AVAILABLE ON FRI'S WEBSITE. RESEARCH FOCUSES INCLUDE SURVEYS OF EXPERTS BELIEFS ABOUT DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, BIOWEAPON USE, AND RISKS FROM ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. FRI IMPROVED AND MAINTAINS A BENCHMARK OF AI PROGRESS, CALLED FORECASTBENCH, MEASURING THE ACCURACY OF AI SYSTEMS ON AUTOMATED FORECASTING TASKS. FRI ALSO LAUNCHED A LONGITUFINAL PANEL OF AI EXPERTS, A THREE-YEAR PROJECT TRACKING THE VIEWS OF LEADING COMPUTER SCIENTISTS, AI INDUSTRY PROFESSIONALS, POLICY RESEARCHERS, AND ECONOMISTS ON THE TRAJECTORY OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE.

Source: Form 990 for the year ending December 31, 2025, filed with the Internal Revenue Service. Rating method 2026.2. How we rate

Legitimacy checks

  1. Is it registered with the IRS? Passed.

    Listed in the IRS master file of tax-exempt organizations as a 501(c)(3) charitable organization.

    Source: Exempt Organizations Business Master File, Internal Revenue Service, file dated October 13, 2026.

  2. Has the IRS revoked its tax-exempt status? Passed.

    Not on the IRS automatic revocation list.

    Source: Automatic revocation of exemption list, Internal Revenue Service, file dated October 13, 2026.

  3. Are donations tax-deductible? Passed.

    On the IRS list of organizations eligible to receive tax-deductible contributions.

    Source: Publication 78 data: organizations eligible for tax-deductible contributions, Internal Revenue Service, file dated October 13, 2026.

  4. Is it keeping up with its IRS filings? Passed.

    Most recent return on file covers the year ending December 2025.

    Source: Exempt Organizations Business Master File, Internal Revenue Service, file dated October 13, 2026.

  5. How long has it been tax-exempt? Passed.

    Recognized by the IRS since February 2023.

    Source: Exempt Organizations Business Master File, Internal Revenue Service, file dated October 13, 2026.

  6. Is it in good standing with state regulators? Passed.

    Not on California's list of charities barred from soliciting. Other states are not yet checked.

    Source: May Not Operate or Solicit for Charitable Purposes list, California Attorney General, Registry of Charities and Fundraisers, file dated October 21, 2026.

Ratings and checks are our reading of public records, using the published method. They are not a statement about anyone's honesty. If you work for this organization, you can send corrections or results, confirm you want gifts through Veridonate, or ask to be removed from giving.